In 2034 there is a risk of severe heat wave again


  • On May 18, 1972, the highest temperature in the country was recorded at Rajshahi at 45.1 degrees Celsius
  • The country’s average temperature has increased by 0.5 degrees Celsius in the last 44 years
  • By 2030, average temperatures could rise by 0.7 degrees Celsius
  • By 2050, average temperatures could rise by 1.4 degrees Celsius

In April this year, the highest temperature in the history of the country in 52 years was recorded at 43.8 degrees Celsius. If the temperature rise continues, it will exceed 45°C in 2030 and may exceed 46°C by 2050.

This has emerged in a study titled ‘The Impact of Heatwaves in Bangladesh: Historical Trends, Present Challenges and Future Projections’. The study was conducted by the Environment and Social Development Organization (ESDO), a non-governmental organization working on the environment.

In 2034 there is a risk of severe heat wave again

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‘The climate is changing rapidly and heat waves are increasing due to actions that harm people and the environment. And because of this, the world is rapidly falling from a cold period to a warmer one.’-Dr. Shahriar Hossain, Senior Technical Advisor, Esdo

In the study, Esdo analyzed previous research in Bangladesh. For research, they collected records of heat waves since 1972. The temperature at that time was around 27 degrees Celsius.

In 2034 there is a risk of severe heat wave again

The study reveals an alarming trend in Bangladesh. Temperatures have been rising steadily since the early 2000s. Between 2014 and 2024, temperatures exceeded 37.8 degrees Celsius several times. According to previous data, extreme heat waves prevailed in the country in 1994, 2004, 2014 and 2024. According to this trend, the researchers said, such intense heat waves are repeated almost every decade. As such, another extreme heat wave may occur around 2034. The temperature of which may be higher than the present time.

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According to the study, the average temperature of Bangladesh has increased by 10.5 degrees Celsius in the last 44 years. By 2030, this average temperature may increase by another 7.7 degrees Celsius, and by 2050, the average temperature will increase by 1.4 degrees Celsius. That is, by 2030 the temperature will exceed 45 degrees Celsius, and by 2050 it will exceed 46 degrees Celsius.

In 2034 there is a risk of severe heat wave again

According to Asdo, although the climate cannot be accurately understood, its changes cannot be predicted. However, this hypothesis can give us ideas to prevent future heat waves and prepare for such situations.

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Researchers point to four main reasons behind the rise in temperature in Bangladesh. These are: Bangladesh’s geographical location, climate change, increased carbon emissions from fossil fuels and industries, which contribute to increased greenhouse gases, and oceanic effects such as El Niño events.

‘Heat waves pose major challenges to health, agriculture and livelihoods. Actions must be taken to reduce high temperatures to address the current situation and secure our future.’ Siddiqa Sultana, Executive Director, Esdo

These factors are increasing the country’s heat wave said Esdor Senior Technical Advisor Dr. Shahriar Hossain. He said the climate is changing rapidly and heatwaves are increasing due to activities that harm people and the environment. Because of this, the Earth is rapidly moving from a cooler period to a warmer one.

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30 people may die in every lakh

After independence, the highest temperature recorded in Rajshahi was 45.1 degrees Celsius on 18 May 1972. This is the highest temperature ever recorded in the country’s history. In about 52 years, the highest temperature recorded in Jessore was 43.8 degrees Celsius last April 30. 15 people have died this year due to intense heat, according to ESDO. In 2023, 1,200 patients were hospitalized every day due to heat waves.

In 2034 there is a risk of severe heat wave again

According to the World Health Organization (WHO), heatwaves will increase further in 2030 and heat-related deaths among the elderly could account for 30 per 100,000 by 2080.

Health risks in extreme heat waves

According to Esdo’s research, many people suffer from health problems due to high heat wave in different parts of Dhaka but they lack awareness about how to deal with this problem. Agriculture sector is affected by rising temperature. For example: In the heat wave of 2021, more than 21 thousand hectares of rice was destroyed.

In 2034 there is a risk of severe heat wave again

Esdo conducted a case study on 50 hawkers in the capital’s Lalmatia. It shows that 80 percent of the hawkers sell fruits and vegetables. They suffer from various health problems due to heat wave. These include mood swings, headaches, dehydration and sunburn. These problems affect their previous health problems. Asthma and diabetes increase, causing more problems later.

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The heat wave has a negative impact on the livelihood of the hawkers. 77 percent of the hawkers said that the number of buyers decreases during intense heat. Sales are low and products are wasted.

In 2034 there is a risk of severe heat wave again

According to expert doctors, the increase in heat waves increases the presence of bacteria in the environment. As a result, diarrhea and water-borne diseases increase. Apart from this, diseases like stress, heat stroke, dehydration, rash, insomnia increase as a result of heat wave. In addition, infectious diseases such as diarrhoea, malaria, dengue, rota virus etc. increase due to heat stress.

Studies have shown that the risk of cholera increases significantly two days after a heat wave. Heat waves increase the effect of E-coli bacteria, which is the main cause of diarrheal diseases. The heat wave in Dhaka has increased health risks, especially mosquito-borne diseases and diarrhoea.

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Increased heat waves are projected to increase deaths by 5 percent to 15 percent in the 2030s and 10 percent to 20 percent in the 2050s.

Greening should be done to reduce heat flow. Greening in urban areas has reduced greatly. Plants must grow. Recycling of water is hindered due to bricks and stones in Dhaka. In this, the underground water level is going down.’-Dr. Mohammad Enayet Hossain, Associate Professor, Department of Soil, Water and Environment, University of Dhaka

Esdo Executive Director Siddiqa Sultana said, ‘Heat wave is creating major challenges for health, agriculture and livelihood. Actions must be taken to reduce high temperatures to address the current situation and secure our future.’

Impact on agriculture, environment and socio-economic sectors

Esdor Senior Technical Advisor Dr. Shahriar Hossain said, ‘Heat flow affects the environment, agricultural sector and urban areas. Agricultural production has dropped by 20 percent this year due to excessive heat waves. As a result, prices of agricultural products have increased. Heat waves, on the other hand, affect crop production, reducing water availability. Apart from this, animal husbandry is also affected. causes water scarcity.’

Greening and water bodies should be increased

Associate Professor of Department of Soil, Water and Environment of Dhaka University. Mohammad Enayet Hossain told Jago News, ‘greening should be done to reduce heat flow. Greening in urban areas has reduced greatly. Plants must grow. Recycling of water is hindered due to bricks and stones in Dhaka. In this, the underground water level is going down.’

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Dr. Enayet said, ‘We have many reservoirs, canals and canals around us, which are now in a bad condition. Water absorbs heat. Water bodies need to be revitalized to reduce heat waves.’

In 2034 there is a risk of severe heat wave again

Dr. in this regard. Shahriar said, ‘It can be seen that the temperature is higher in the city than in the village. This is because there are no trees and greenery in the city. Besides, glass buildings are being built in the city. Due to these glasses, sunlight is reflected and the temperature increases. Covering these buildings with vegetation or such trees will absorb the temperature. Tree planting should be made mandatory in Dhaka. Even if there is no space, small trees, planting trees on roofs and greening should be increased.’

AAM/MMAR/JIM