Over the past two decades, Turkey has significantly shifted its foreign policy, transitioning from a reactive stance to one characterized by proactive and interventionist strategies. This shift has been driven by the recognition of evolving geopolitical landscapes and the structural challenges presented by regional conflicts. Freed from many domestic constraints, the Turkish policymaking apparatus has enjoyed ample maneuverability, allowing for a bold and ambitious foreign policy. However, this approach has sometimes strained relations with both global and regional actors.

Ibrahim Kalin, who was chief foreign policy adviser to then-Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan and now serves as intelligence chief, introduced the term “precious loneliness” to describe Turkey’s controversial Middle East policy during a turbulent period. At the time, Ankara was embroiled in a diplomatic row with Cairo, adding to its already strained relations with Syria and Israel, and creating friction with some Gulf states. Despite multiple attempts, efforts to restore ties with Egypt, Israel, and the Gulf states bore little fruit for nearly a decade. However, recent years have ushered in a new era in Turkey’s foreign relations, driven by new structural challenges and a recalibrated approach that leverages political, economic, and social tools.

Several internal and external factors have driven this significant shift in Turkey’s foreign policy. Domestically, key political developments, including the May 2023 elections and the upcoming March 2024 elections, alongside economic challenges and shifts in public opinion, have played crucial roles. Externally, the dynamics of global power have shifted, particularly in the post-American era in the Middle East, alongside regional conflicts such as the Israeli war in Gaza. Additionally, diplomatic pressures, epitomized by the broader reconciliation climate heralded by the AlUla declaration of 2021, have influenced Ankara’s foreign policy direction.

These multifaceted factors have collectively led Ankara to adopt a foreign policy characterized by greater pragmatism and restraint. Turkey’s renewed momentum in its relations with the US, Egypt, and Iraq has been particularly instrumental. A significant development was the Turkish parliament’s approval of Sweden’s NATO membership, coupled with the US Congress’s green light for the sale of F-16 fighter jets to Turkey, signaling a new chapter in US-Turkish relations. Erdogan’s visit to Egypt marked a new era in the strategic partnership between the two nations, further solidified by the impending visit of the Egyptian president to Ankara. Similarly, the Turkiye-Iraq security summit in Baghdad in mid-March represented a forward leap in relations, with joint efforts to combat the PKK and discussions on creating a security corridor along their land border and expediting the Development Road project.

Within Turkey, three significant developments have shaped its foreign policy transformation: the May 2023 elections, the upcoming March 2024 elections, and a reshuffle of the foreign policy apparatus. The appointment of Hakan Fidan, the former intelligence chief, as the head of foreign affairs injected new momentum into Turkish foreign policy. Fidan’s tenure has underscored the close cooperation between intelligence and diplomacy, with Erdogan ultimately determining the foreign policy parameters. Fidan, known for his calm and silent diplomacy, played a significant role in shaping and implementing foreign policy towards Syria and was the main architect behind Turkiye’s efforts to normalize relations with Middle Eastern countries previously alienated. This shift towards a more pragmatic and calm foreign policy approach reflects Fidan’s influence and understanding of the region’s changing dynamics.

The outcomes of past elections prompted a reflection on “what went wrong,” leading to a recalibration in foreign policy. Despite no change in government or leadership, the election results have significantly influenced Turkish foreign policymakers’ priorities and, consequently, the country’s foreign policy direction. Turkey’s current foreign policy echoes the pre-2010 era, where cooperation with regional actors was a key strategy component. Economic considerations now take precedence over ideological factors in shaping foreign policy decisions.

In a world characterized by uncertain multipolarity, Turkey, like other regional powers, believes it has wide space for maneuver in pursuing “strategic autonomy.” However, this approach aligns with increased cooperation among regional actors. In regional crises, Turkey refrains from unilateral moves, opting instead for coordinated actions with regional and global actors. This strategy, although seen by some as passive, reflects rationality and caution, particularly in a restrictive regional environment.

Turkey’s new foreign policy emphasizes economic diplomacy as a cornerstone. By prioritizing economic interests and regional cooperation over ideological pursuits, Ankara is likely to foster more stable and beneficial relationships with neighboring countries and global powers alike. This shift is evident in Turkey’s recent diplomatic overtures and agreements, such as the aforementioned NATO membership approval and F-16 fighter jet deal with the United States. These moves mean a more calculated and reciprocal approach to international relations.

Turkey’s new foreign policy approach also reflects an understanding of the complexities of regional politics. By avoiding unilateral actions and instead coordinating with regional and global actors, Ankara is positioning itself as a cooperative player rather than a confrontational one. This strategy is particularly crucial in a region marked by volatility and shifting alliances.

For instance, Turkiye’s approach to the Syrian conflict, once marked by direct intervention and ideological positioning, has become more nuanced and cooperative. Engaging in dialogue with Russia and Iran, despite differing interests, underscores Turkey’s commitment to finding pragmatic solutions through diplomacy rather than force. This shift is indicative of a broader trend in Turkish foreign policy: a move towards strategic caution and multilateralism.

Leadership plays a pivotal role in this transformation. President Erdogan’s strategic vision, coupled with Hakan Fidan’s diplomatic acumen, has steered Turkey towards a more balanced and pragmatic foreign policy. Fidan’s background in intelligence provides him with a deep understanding of regional dynamics, allowing him to navigate the complex web of Middle Eastern politics effectively. His calm and methodical approach contrasts with the more assertive policies of the past, offering a steadier hand in foreign affairs.

The strategic implications of Turkey’s recalibrated foreign policy are profound. By prioritizing economic interests and regional cooperation over ideological pursuits, Ankara is likely to foster more stable and beneficial relationships with neighboring countries and global powers alike. This shift is evident in Turkey’s recent diplomatic overtures and agreements, such as the aforementioned NATO membership approval and F-16 fighter jet deal with the United States. These moves mean a more calculated and reciprocal approach to international relations.

Moreover, the emphasis on economic diplomacy is poised to bring substantial benefits. By fostering economic ties, Turkey can leverage its strategic position as a bridge between Europe and Asia, enhancing trade routes and attracting foreign investment. This economic focus not only bolsters Turkey’s domestic economy but also increases its influence and soft power in the region.

In conclusion, Turkey’s foreign policy evolution reflects a strategic adaptation to new regional and global realities. By embracing economic considerations, fostering regional cooperation, and adopting a pragmatic approach, Turkey is redefining its role on the international stage. This recalibration not only enhances Turkey’s strategic autonomy but also positions it as a more stable and influential player in regional and global politics.

As Turkiye continues to navigate the complexities of the geopolitical landscape, its commitment to rational and cautious diplomacy will likely yield positive outcomes. The strategic implications of this shift are significant, promising a more prosperous and secure future for Turkey and its regional partners. Embracing new realities has indeed become a cornerstone of Turkey’s foreign policy, marking a new era of strategic pragmatism and regional cooperation.

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